For Tehran and Tel Aviv, war with limited options

On October 1, Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, and on October 26, Israel responded with three waves of strikes against Iranian military targets. As the conflict in West Asia reaches a new stage with an increasing risk of a direct confrontation between the United States (US) and Iran, concerns are growing around the capitals of the world.
The current confrontation between Israel and Iran’s allies, which began with the surprise and bloody attack launched by the Palestinian group Hamas on October 7, 2023, has already affected Lebanon, where Israel is fighting the Shiite militia Hezbollah. The possibility of an open war between Iran and Israel is worrying both the Israelis and the Iranians. Besides the loss of lives, an Israeli attack against Iran’s oil installations could be followed by Tehran interrupting the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the daily transit route for more than 20% of the world’s oil.
That said, Iran’s options are limited, and Israelis know that. Iran has no partner that identifies with its Shiite ideological position or its hegemonic policy in the region. This is an ideological isolation that Iran experienced during its eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s. If Iran is affected by its geographical location, countries in its extended neighbourhood such as Turkey and Russia are unlikely to help the mullahs.
As for the predominantly Sunni countries of the Persian Gulf region — Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar — they either have security agreements with the US or host US forces. Also, unlike its main regional rival, Saudi Arabia, Iran is neither a member of the Arab League nor of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
So, can Iran win a war against Israel? Israel has the independent capacity to hit Iran hard, but it will not be able to defeat the clerics of Iran and its Revolutionary Guards without American military help. This is why the Israeli air force that hit military installations in Iran on October 26 refrained from targeting oil and nuclear targets.
And yet, as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, the younger generation in Israel and Iran is keeping a distance from the war. The Islamic regime in Iran is characterised by its repression of youth. The fervour of the early years of the 1979 revolution and the war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq has faded. After 45 years of political and economic mismanagement by the regime, young Iranians are a disillusioned lot.
Economic sanctions and the devaluation of the currency have hurt them — today, they are more concerned about the deterioration of their living conditions than an ideological conflict that is not of their making.
Frustrated, Iran’s educated youth flee the country to escape unemployment and political insecurity. Equally, the youth in Israel do not want to be dragged into a war that is not of their making.
Israel cannot conduct a major and sustained ground incursion into Iran and Tehran can only count on proxies in West Asia to inflict any damage on Tel Aviv. Israelis are also hoping that Iranians will turn against their regime. According to Iranian social media, many Iranians think that an eventual war between Iran and Israel could lead to a regime change in Tehran.
That said, none of them want Iranian cities to be bombed or ordinary citizens to die. A war without casualties and one that could force a change of government is wishful thinking, as the ongoing events in Gaza and past conflicts in West Asia reveal.
Ramin Jahanbegloo, an Iranian philosopher,is director, Mahatma Gandhi Centre for Peace Studies, Jindal Global Law School.The views expressed are personal